iWhen a grail becomes availablen/a    Sélection des lecteurs (2017-04-19)

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0Il y a 6 jours (Il y a 6 jours)victorvipervictorviper
Rejean235 (Il y a 7 jours) #20084895Wow, 236 votes when I added mine, impressive for a blog.
Anyone has item #19098 for sale, I've been looking for her since 2009?
Assuming it has been exactly 8 years, 2922 days (2 leap years), then 0 < p < 0.00003422. I'm prepared to pay just about anything for her but I never saw her for sale; I'm assuming p ≠ 0 since she exist. I actively looked for her a few years ago but I now just have her as passive search. I even sent PMs to the 5 person having her in MFC about 6 years ago, none wanted to get rid of her. No one since then joined MFC indicating they owned her.
I do have patience.


Well, since the waiting time X follows a geometric distribution, the kicker is that the standard deviation of X is (1-p)^.5/p, which approaches 1/p as p -> 0. Thus, even a waiting time of 3/p wouldn't even really be an outlier. For example, for a not impossibly rare figure (probability 1/1000 of it showing up on any given day), 50 simulated waiting times could be:

Rweb:> rgeom(50, prob=.001)
[1] 38 3619 523 2436 3482 969 852 442 1698 256 339 1498 335 4858 2604
[16] 327 569 18 863 1714 919 1221 2185 1690 87 87 577 3040 881 387
[31] 1040 1647 143 1435 543 627 643 370 589 972 1109 386 1057 474 776
[46] 2053 80 711 476 270

One lucky collector in our simulation waits only 18 days to find their grail and one poor bastard waits for more than 13 years! The geometric distribution is a real b**** sometimes :).

(Simulated data from RWeb [ext link ])
0Il y a 7 joursRejean235Rejean235 Give her a weapon
Wow, 236 votes when I added mine, impressive for a blog.

Anyone has item #19098 for sale, I've been looking for her since 2009?

victorviper (Il y a 8 jours) #20004339...if a figure will be available for purchase on any given day with probability p not equal to zero, then with probability 1 it will eventually be available again in the future and in fact the expected waiting time for the figure is 1/p days...
Patience is a virtue after all.
Assuming it has been exactly 8 years, 2922 days (2 leap years), then 0 < p < 0.00003422. I'm prepared to pay just about anything for her but I never saw her for sale; I'm assuming p ≠ 0 since she exist. I actively looked for her a few years ago but I now just have her as passive search. I even sent PMs to the 5 person having her in MFC about 6 years ago, none wanted to get rid of her. No one since then joined MFC indicating they owned her.
I do have patience.
1Il y a 7 joursCannedMuffinsCannedMuffins
My one grail was item #163750. When I saw him posted up here for such a decent price I was hesitant but also knew if this was real I needed to act. I don't encourage this and I only say do it if you know you have a consistent income. I charged it. I usual would never charge figures and only go off my debit card. But I saw it as a one time opportunity. So I did it. I don't regret it. I recommend if you do this to pay the shit off ASAP. In the end it does go off the rule everyone else is saying: you don't have the money you don't get it. Paying off bills requires cash as well in the end.
0Il y a 7 joursmikeymikemichaelmikeymikemichael
When I come across a grail I pounce like a Star-Nosed Mole!!. The figure collecting gods smile!
1Il y a 8 jourschachamarurinchachamarurin
If I'm cash-strapped I'll have to let it go. Nothing I can do about it. I did, however, asked to pay by installments once with a MFC seller who very kindly agreed.
I won't even go looking at expensive grails when I don't have any money, that saves a lot of heartache haha.
However I did have a few prize-figure grails that I can instantly pay for (price is super cheap, they just aren't popular to be readily available) which I'll just buy in a heartbeat :)
0Il y a 8 joursmikki-malumikki-malu
I don't have grails but I might give in if I found a figure I want at a veeery good price like, say, about twice cheaper than it normally goes for and such discount is a rare occasion. Though these days I mostly notice figures I was hunting a few years ago but couldn't find or afford and now they pop up for quite cheap and I already don't want them.
1Il y a 8 joursGodlikeSaschaGodlikeSascha
I make it a point not to look for grails unless I'm able to afford them at that time for that exact reason. It saves me a lot of disappointments. I look them up every once in a while to see where their prices are at, to give me a good idea of what to expect, and when I have the money, then I start looking for them. I don't want to jeopardise my finances because of figures.
1Il y a 8 jours (Il y a 8 jours)cpmsancpmsan
In my country usually the sellers or proxies allow for down payment and you can pay the rest later and they'll send the item after you have paid in full so i usually pay partially.
0Il y a 8 joursVeroxionVeroxion
Grails and other high-priority items ALWAYS seem to pop up when I'm broke. Then when I actually have money to spend, there's absolutely nothing I want since I want to make the purchase worthwhile... -_-

There have been times where the sale is just TOO good to pass up. Like I found item #364097 on sale for UNDER 3K last Christmas. His current market price is anywhere between 6-9k... so yeah. That was a complete steal. I didn't have the money, even though he was incredibly cheap, but I made it work somehow.
0Il y a 8 joursChocolateSpiderChocolateSpider
I had this experience recently. I found the first release of item #5813. But I already had some important purchases to deal with among an expensive statue I had to make a deposit on. I had to pass on it. It still haunts me to this day. </3
1Il y a 8 joursTiamat26Tiamat26
View spoilerHide spoilerTyjosAzari (Il y a 9 jours) #20004128"What would yo do if one of your grails came up for sale but you have circumstances that just won't ( or should not ) permit you to buy it?"
Well my solution to this problem has always been to sell sell sell sell sell
Been very good at that over the last few years and I haven't had that many grails to hunt up over the past few years.
How have I gotten my grails?
Usually by selling a lot of stuff and making the needed funds and a little extra at that time.
item #6180 Got her by selling some of my Transformers Masterpiece Figures at the time since I was lucky enough to find her on AmiAmi's preowned and she does not come up that often since she's a Convention exclusive.
item #44543 this was one of the most expensive Grails I got and this one I got through selling a few things at that time.
I don't let things like the price on a grail get in the way at times especially if it's something that I'm hunting for and I'm one of those who can sum a hunt for a grail up with this.
"I MUST POSSESS THAT ITEM, THIS I COMMAND!"
But every major item that I have gotten into this collection has been by selling or in the case of two rare items item #128683 and the Star Wars Signature Series Mace Windu Light Saber [Both are Grals now]that can be considered grails doing a major trade deal to get so I make sure never to get to where one has to worry too much about running out of funds in the future so selling has been my main method of getting grails.


Yeah I have seen you sell a multitude of figurines in the past and you did a great job at clearing part of your dept off. Kudos on that. I see though that you have nevver really stopped collecting which is a good thing as quiting would have been difficult for you.

As for Selling well I am not one to sell that much. There are just to many horror stories of people taking advantage of others saying they never got the item, it arrived damaged. I have sold 2 items in my life and I did so only becasue I had spares.

Other then that I get the point of selling but it's not for me. Yet.

= )

Tia
1Il y a 8 joursTiamat26Tiamat26
victorviper (Il y a 8 jours) #20004339By the folks who brought you probability theory, if a figure will be available for purchase on any given day with probability p not equal to zero, then with probability 1 it will eventually be available again in the future and in fact the expected waiting time for the figure is 1/p days.
I think p is sufficiently large for most figures that this will not represent a lifetime of waiting. Further, most figures do not appreciate in value so rapidly that you're going to have some runaway situation where the expected present value of the figure runs off to infinity. Quite the opposite really; most figures depreciate in value, and like any other depreciating asset, let someone else pay today for as much of the depreciation as possible.
But seriously, figures are luxury goods and I could not justify spending money that I didn't currently have on a luxury good. Patience is a virtue after all.


Price/1 = no food on the table then Price/1 = 0 If Price/1 = $$$ then Price/1 =

Add to Cart

Confirm purchase


Say outch to the Master Card bill at the end of the month

Priceless

for a wanted grail.

= )

Tia
0Il y a 8 joursTiamat26Tiamat26
misacchin (Il y a 8 jours) #20004305Ughhhh i know the painnnn.
Until recently ive gotten into collecting more and I laid my eyes on this beauty item #166923
The most expensive thing ever and I've never read the manga but it's BEAUTIFUL.
The day will come when I can afford it without taking a punch in the gut.
Until then I WILL WAIT
Things happen for a reason, and if they don't, then it's for a reason too.


Kind of a double edged sword isn't it LOL

+ )

Tia
0Il y a 8 joursTiamat26Tiamat26
breakeric (Il y a 8 jours) #20008124Dreams come true to those who are patient. :)
View spoilerHide spoilerhttp://s1.tsuki-board.net/image/breakeric1439990086.jpeg
It was 5 years I waited until I was finally able to afford my grail. But it's been 1 year since I've had her and I haven't regretted it :)


Wow five years that is a massive amount of time. Kudos on having the patients to wait that long to get a grail.

= )

Tia
0Il y a 8 joursTiamat26Tiamat26
rufusdrumknott (Il y a 9 jours) #20003983I love figures to the point of obsession, but definitely not to the point of jeopardising my own wellbeing haha. ^^;

I am the same way that is why I decided to let one slip through my fingers this morning. I have 2 pre-orders for April if they are not delayed and I have one for May.

Thankfully I have my 1/4 scale MoMO already paid for from last year when I ordered her. So 3 more 1/6 scales to come in and that should be it for this year unless something happens.

Thank you for the comment

= )

Tia
0Il y a 8 joursCeliathePikachuCeliathePikachu
breakeric (Il y a 8 jours) #20008124Dreams come true to those who are patient. :)
View spoilerHide spoilerhttp://s1.tsuki-board.net/image/breakeric1439990086.jpeg
It was 5 years I waited until I was finally able to afford my grail. But it's been 1 year since I've had her and I haven't regretted it :)

Same thing happened to me! Ironically, it was also Dollfie Dream Mio! She's really beautiful, isn't she?
0Il y a 8 jours (Il y a 8 jours)FigyourEdFigyourEd
Patience is the key. It will either come to you eventually or eventually, you'll lose interest and stop searching.

Such is the case with item #5878 and item #79038. While neither is exactly impossible to find, most sellers are charging exorbitant prices for them and I managed to snag them both on Amazon for even less than their original release price.

Every once in a while, I'll catch something I'd been looking for some time on amiami's pre-owned for a good price and that's when your instincts kick in and you know whether to pull the trigger on a once in a blue moon opportunity or brush it off, knowing it'll show up again at some point.
2Il y a 8 joursbreakericbreakeric
Dreams come true to those who are patient. :)
View spoilerHide spoilerhttp://s1.tsuki-board.net/image/breakeric1439990086.jpeg
It was 5 years I waited until I was finally able to afford my grail. But it's been 1 year since I've had her and I haven't regretted it :)
1Il y a 8 joursgundamukgundamuk Lewd, but never uncouth...
Like TyjosAzari and others said below, or Randolph Duke for that matter in "Trading Place" says, "Sell, Mortimer, sell!" Most collections could benefit from a periodic purge, especially when it makes room and cash for new stuff.
2Il y a 8 joursIshokuOseroIshokuOsero Idol in training <3
I just downright don't go looking if I can't afford something. I don't use Figinstock or anything like that so everything's completely up to chance with me, and it also helps me that I don't know if something's ever up for sale or whatever so I'm not spending recklessly.

Early this year I had enough money after taxes to do something nice for myself so I went on Manda and happened across a grail of mine. I could afford it so I bought it. I hadn't been on that site for years prior to that because I couldn't afford it. Pretty simple.

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